🔗 Share this article A Forecasting Platform Participant Made $Nearly Half a Million from Wagers Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. An individual profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of the Venezuelan leader just before it was publicly declared, raising questions about potential gains made from confidential information of American actions. Market Movement in Forecasts Predictions made on the forecasting site, a crypto-powered platform, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the close of the month surged in the time leading up to Donald Trump declared on the weekend that the president had been taken into custody. A single trader, which became a member last month and took four positions, all on Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a modest bet of over $32,000. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification. Probability Spikes Before Public Statement Market statistics shows that users assessed the probability of a political change at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. However the odds had climbed to eleven percent by late Friday night and skyrocketed in the early hours of the next day, suggesting a sharp shift in betting activity right before the social media post was made. "This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a trade based on non-public details," said Dennis Kelleher. A small number of other traders also earned significant sums from similar wagers. Legal Questions Grows Elected officials are beginning to pay attention. A new rule presented on recently seeks to ban government employees from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a wager. Industry Context Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with traders able to bet on everything from sports to current affairs. Prediction markets were examined under the last presidential term. But it has found a more favorable environment during the present political climate. Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting arena. A company executive for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."